Navigate the business cycle with confidence
SUSTAINED AGGREGATE GDP GROWTH CONCEALS UNDERLYING WORRIES, 26Q2 The positive tendency in aggregate GDP growth continued during 26Q1, with it expanding by a stronger than expected 0.5% (and 2.0% year-on-year). Year-on-year growth was elevated given the 0.4% contraction in non-agricultural GDP during 25Q1. Agriculture posted strong quarterly growth, expanding by 3.9% (and 7.0% year-on-year); this … Read more
5th QUARTER OF MODERATE GDP GROWTH MIDST SERIOUS HEADWINDS, 25Q4 The business cycle is poised for economic recovery, albeit that it has been midst exceptional headwinds. Important leading economic indicators, such as business confidence and the SARB’s composite leading business cycle indicators affirm the incipient economic recovery. The RMB/BER business confidence index has jumped by … Read more
MODEST GDP GROWTH SUSTAINED, 25Q3 Real GDP growth was sustained at a modest pace of 0.5% (quarter-on-quarter) during 25Q3, following on the 0.8% surprising bounce in 25Q2. This reading in itself – and its composition – may not be enough to call a change in the trend but combined with the 25Q4 BER survey results … Read more
REAL GDP GROWTH SURPRISES, 25Q2 Whereas 25Q2 GDP figures were slightly better than expected, the sideways and erratic growth trend did not change. Real GDP bounced by 0.8% compared to 25Q1, following a flat tendency during the first quarter (real GDP up 0.1%). More importantly, what did change, is the composition of sectoral growth. This … Read more
EXPECT INCREMENTAL IMPROVEMENT IN SA’S ECONOMIC MOMENTUM, 24Q3 The newly installed Government of National Unity (GNU) has re-ignited hopes for an economic revival. Economic growth tended to be erratic and lacking momentum after it rebounded from the COVID-induced slump in 2020. The first GDP release following the ground-breaking national election (29th of May), 30 years … Read more
WEAK DEMAND CLOUDS THE OUTLOOK, 23Q3 SA’s post-COVID economic recovery has evolved to a precarious state. The pattern of rigid growth, characterised with an erratic quarterly pattern, continues. Ironically, the combination of a reprieve in electricity loadshedding (real value add up 0.2% in 23Q3) and a more competitive currency (undervalued by 4.2% on average) is … Read more
REPRIEVE IN LOADSHEDDING ASSISTS SUPPLY SIDE OF ECONOMY, 23Q2 On the supply-side, SA economic growth is constrained owing to infrastructure constraints and socio-political pressures, particularly in the run-up the next year’s national elections. Real GDP growth surprised on the positive side during 23Q2; compared to the weak first quarter, real growth of 0.6% was registered. … Read more
SA ECONOMY SCRAPES A TECHNICAL RECESSION, 23Q1 Following the contraction in real GDP during the final quarter of 2022, the economy scraped a technical recession during the first quarter, expanding by a modest 0.4%. Encouragingly, most sectors returned to growth during the first quarter. Overall growth would have been stronger was it not for a … Read more
REAL GDP CONTRACTS AGAIN IN STOP-START POST-COVID RECOVERY, 22Q4 Real GDP growth tapered off from 4.9% in 2021 to 2.0% in 2022. During the post-covid recovery, the quarterly growth pattern proved erratic. Last year was no exception. Impacted by brutal electricity loadshedding, amongst other factors, real GDP contracted again during 22Q4, by 1.3%. This followed … Read more
SA ECONOMIC RECOVERY CONTINUES, BUT REMAINS INCOMPLETE & FRAGILE, 22Q3 Following the 22Q2 plunge in economic activity related to flood damage in key provinces, as well as intensified electricity supply shortages, the economy rebounded nicely during 22Q3. Real GDP jumped by 1.6% qoq as most sectors registered growth. This momentum is equivalent to that of … Read more