About Pieter Laubscher - Business Cycle Analytics

***Pieter Laubscher, owner of Business Cycle Analytics***

Pieter Laubscher is the owner of Business Cycle Analytics (BCA), an economics consultancy. He collaborates with the Bureau for Economic Research (BER), Rode & Associates (Pty) Ltd and Linette Ellis, an independent economist and former colleague. He also consulted to the Western Cape Government (WCG), 2005 to 2015 and currently serves on the WCG Department of Economic Development panel of experts.

Pieter’s career as an economist began in 1992 when he joined the Bureau for Economic Research, Stellenbosch University, where he was later appointed, Chief Economist (2005). The Bureau for Economic Research won the coveted Reuters Economist of the Year award in 2001 and 2007. In 2009, Pieter started his own economics consultancy, which culminated in the founding of Business Cycle Analytics in January 2015.

Pieter also lectured economics on a voluntary basis at Tsiba Higher Education from 2014 to 2017.

Pieter obtained his M Comm (1995) and also obtained a Certificate in Actuarial Techniques (CAT), London Institute of Actuaries (1989).

Pieter has published a number of papers and working papers on the SA business cycle, as well as chapters in two books.

Ch. 28: *Forecasting South Africa’s business cycle*

Ch. 6: *South Africa’s modern business cycle history*

Quotes by Pieter Laubscher

In a published academic article, The SA business cycle over the 1990s and current prospects, Pieter concluded after analyzing economic conditions during 2001/2:

“… the current upswing phase of the business cycle has substantial potential to surpass the longest post-WWII cycle, lasting well beyond 2003.”

As it turned out, the economic upswing lasted more than double the length of the longest post-war economic upswing, coming to an end in December 2007.
In a 2011 BER Research Note, Pieter warned regarding the SA economic upswing following the 2009 recession:

“… there are question marks behind the longevity of the business cycle upswing … the composition of growth is heavily skewed in favour of the consumer early into the upswing … should the pattern not become distinctly more favourable for fixed investment, employment creation and export growth, the current recovery will be short-lived…”

As it turned out, the SA economy entered a recession in November 2013.
In an earlier BER Research Note (May 2009, at the depth of the Great Recession), Pieter warned:

“…global demand for exports will be under pressure for the foreseeable future due to sub-par real economic growth in the major advanced economies” …

As it turned out, the level of SA’s exports only recovered to their pre-recession peak of mid-2008 by the end of 2014 and SA’s largest trading partner economies were struggling to gain momentum following the Great Recession.

Other research outputs

Author (Academic Journals):

“The business cycle resilience of the Western Cape economy: a regional analysis of the 2009 recession and subsequent recovery”, Studies in Economics & Econometrics (SEE), Vol. 41 No. 3, 2017, 33pp
“A new recession-dating algorithm for South Africa”, Stellenbosch Economic Working Papers 06/14, June 2014, 31pp.
“The SA business cycle over the 1990s and current prospects”, Studies in Economics & Econometrics (SEE), Vol. 28 No. 1, April 2004, 23pp.
“The macro-economic impact of HIV/Aids in South Africa”, Studies in Economics & Econometrics (SEE), Vol. 27 No. 2, 2003, 28pp.
“The BER’s quarterly forecasts: an analysis of its accuracy, 1982-1991”, Studies in Economics & Econometrics (SEE), 1992.

Ad-hoc research:

“An econometric model: SA GDP, CPI, REPO & R/$ exchange rate”, Research report prepared for PricewaterhouseCoopers (PWC) (Pty) Ltd, 12 February 2019, 58pp
“Fair value of the rand exchange rate”, BCA presentation to the Afrifocus Conference on Mining, Sandton, 31 July 2018.
“Assessing the equilibrium value of the rand/US dollar exchange rate”, Research report prepared for ARX Investment Partners (Pty) Ltd, 26 April 2017, 69pp.
“Salient features of SA’s post-2009 business cycle”, BER presentation to the UBS 7th South African Economics Conference, 12 October 2016.
“Economic forecast for South Africa, including a focus on KwaZulu-Natal”, presentation to Trade & Industry KZN (TIKZN): Export Week, 17 – 19 October 2016.
“A brief history of the US interest rate cycle and international capital flows to SA: any guide to the short to medium-term future?”, BER Research Note 15/No 1, University of Stellenbosch, 2015, 21pp
“Stellenbosch Project: What is required to achieve 8% real GDPR growth in the Stellenbosch municipal economy?”, A research report prepared for the Stellenbosch Municipality, 28 May 2014, 38pp.
Laubscher, P & McCarthy, CL: Economic Synthesis Project, a research report prepared for the Department of Economic Development & Tourism (DEDAT), Western Cape Government (WCG), March 2013
(Research manager & co-author) Municipal Economic Review & Outlook 2012/ 2013/ 2014/ 2015. 600 page research reports prepared annually for the Western Cape Government (WCG)
“The contribution of the Western Cape health care sector to the South African economy”, A research report prepared for the Western Cape Government (WCG), Department of Health (DoH), 19 February 2012, 12 pp.
“Positioning the KwaZulu-Natal Economy for High and Sustainable Growth”, A presentation to the Economic Symposium, Provincial Treasury, KwaZulu-Natal Government (KZNG), 13 April 2012, 12 pp.
“Towards Growth & Employment Targets for the Western Cape: A Baseline Projection”, A research report prepared for the Western Cape Government (WCG), Department of Economic Development & Tourism (DEDAT), 19 September 2011, 15 pp.
“South Africa’s long economic expansion and evidence on the current recovery”, BER Research Note, No 1, 28 January 2011, 18 pp
“The global financial crisis and the implications for the South African economy”, BER Research Note 2009, No 5, 26 May 2009, 24 pp.
“An assessment of SA’s electricity supply constraint and preliminary indications of the economic impact”, BER Research Note 2008, No 5, 28 April 2008, 44 pp.

Services offered by Business Cycle Analytics

Business Cycle Analytics’s primary focus is to locate a company, industry or sector on the SA business cycle.

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