Navigate the business cycle with confidence
Pieter Laubscher SUSTAINED AGGREGATE GDP GROWTH CONCEALS UNDERLYING WORRIES, 26Q2 The positive tendency in aggregate GDP growth continued during 26Q1, with it expanding by a stronger than expected 0.5% (and 2.0% year-on-year). Year-on-year growth was elevated given the 0.4% contraction in non-agricultural GDP during 25Q1. Agriculture posted strong quarterly growth, expanding by 3.9% (and 7.0% year-on-year); this … Read more
5th QUARTER OF MODERATE GDP GROWTH MIDST SERIOUS HEADWINDS, 25Q4 The business cycle is poised for economic recovery, albeit that it has been midst exceptional headwinds. Important leading economic indicators, such as business confidence and the SARB’s composite leading business cycle indicators affirm the incipient economic recovery. The RMB/BER business confidence index has jumped by … Read more
MODEST GDP GROWTH SUSTAINED, 25Q3 Real GDP growth was sustained at a modest pace of 0.5% (quarter-on-quarter) during 25Q3, following on the 0.8% surprising bounce in 25Q2. This reading in itself – and its composition – may not be enough to call a change in the trend but combined with the 25Q4 BER survey results … Read more
REAL GDP GROWTH SURPRISES, 25Q2 Whereas 25Q2 GDP figures were slightly better than expected, the sideways and erratic growth trend did not change. Real GDP bounced by 0.8% compared to 25Q1, following a flat tendency during the first quarter (real GDP up 0.1%). More importantly, what did change, is the composition of sectoral growth. This … Read more
THE SA ECONOMY STALLS AMIDST DEEP CRISIS, 25Q1 The second quarter of 2025 was eventful, with crisis developments of historic proportions. It spans the 90-day waiver regarding the trade tariffs announced by President Donald Trump on 2 April, sending shock waves across the globe. Domestically, the GNU teetered on the brink of collapse as Budget … Read more
JUST AS THE SA ECONOMIC OUTLOOK BRIGHTENS, DARK CLOUDS DESCEND (25Q1) SA’s financial markets were shaken by events during 25Q1 and early-April. Developments since 2 April (declared ‘Liberation Day’ in the US) created untold uncertainty, for policy makers, business executives and households alike. The formation of the GNU (Jun’24), the associated lift in business and … Read more
SA’s ECONOMIC RECOVERY WILL BE AN UPHILL BATTLE The current state of the business cycle is more promising than at any time the past decade. SA’s financial markets have responded positively in a meaningful way. Yet, caution is called for. The MPC’s policy message remains unanimous not to expect rapidly declining short-term interest rates. This … Read more
EXPECT INCREMENTAL IMPROVEMENT IN SA’S ECONOMIC MOMENTUM, 24Q3 The newly installed Government of National Unity (GNU) has re-ignited hopes for an economic revival. Economic growth tended to be erratic and lacking momentum after it rebounded from the COVID-induced slump in 2020. The first GDP release following the ground-breaking national election (29th of May), 30 years … Read more
SA ECONOMY ON THE BRINK OF A HISTORIC TURNING POINT, 24Q2 Readers have become conditioned with gloomy SA economic news. To be true, the current post is no exception in reporting on the state of the business cycle in 24Q2. The week following the country’s national election (29th May) brought profoundly inspiring news as SA … Read more
GDP REMAINS FLAT, 23Q4 The release of the 23Q4 GDP figures completes the picture for the year The outstanding feature of the economy, is that it has little to no momentum, whether expanding or contracting. This pattern is well-established. The level of gross domestic fixed investment (23Q4) was still 7.2% down compared to pre-COVID levels, … Read more