Navigate the business cycle with confidence
SUSTAINED AGGREGATE GDP GROWTH CONCEALS UNDERLYING WORRIES, 26Q2 The positive tendency in aggregate GDP growth continued during 26Q1, with it expanding by a stronger than expected 0.5% (and 2.0% year-on-year). Year-on-year growth was elevated given the 0.4% contraction in non-agricultural GDP during 25Q1. Agriculture posted strong quarterly growth, expanding by 3.9% (and 7.0% year-on-year); this … Read more
5th QUARTER OF MODERATE GDP GROWTH MIDST SERIOUS HEADWINDS, 25Q4 The business cycle is poised for economic recovery, albeit that it has been midst exceptional headwinds. Important leading economic indicators, such as business confidence and the SARB’s composite leading business cycle indicators affirm the incipient economic recovery. The RMB/BER business confidence index has jumped by … Read more
Living in an age of ‘radical uncertainty,’ we again find divergent views on the outlook for the business cycle at the current juncture of history. SA’s business cycle has two profound features, namely a strong international connection and, secondly, being exposed to the political structure of the day. Being a small open economy, generating insufficient … Read more
From the end of 2016 and early 2017 it became clearer that the world economy was picking up nicely. Whilst 17Q1 witnessed some (temporary) slowing in the US, Euro area and Japanese growth surprised on the upside. China’s growth also continued close to 7% and the remainder of the emerging market universe recovered from the … Read more