Business Cycles 1974-1981 | 1981-1989 | 1989-1996 | 1997-2007 | 2007-2013 | 2013 to date
The 2007-2013 business cycle
The SA economy did not suffer a major financial impact from the global financial crisis which sparked the Great Recession. The country witnessed some capital flight and the rand exchange rate came under some pressure, but the broader financial conditions remained largely unaffected. The main impact arrived via the trade channel as all its trading partner economies suffered recessionary impacts, which caused the demand for exports to shrink. Commodity prices also tumbled temporarily; however, the big commodity price collapse only happened later when China’s economic growth slowed down (2011-15). The real economic impact was therefore more meaningful, including a contraction in real GDP and, more seriously, steep net job losses (measuring more than a million formal jobs by the end of 2010). However, in an historical context, the contraction in real GDP (and even jobs) was not excessive. The main feature of the 2007-13 business cycle, was the poor recovery phase. The aftermath of the Great Recession and the change in political leadership (2007 and 2009) left an indelible mark on the economy.
For a narrative of the 2007-13 peak-to-peak business cycle …