global theme - Business Cycle Analytics

State of the business cycle, 23Q4

1 May 202414 December 2023 by Pieter Laubscher

WEAK DEMAND CLOUDS THE OUTLOOK, 23Q3 SA’s post-COVID economic recovery has evolved to a precarious state. The pattern of rigid growth, characterised with an erratic quarterly pattern, continues. Ironically, the combination of a reprieve in electricity loadshedding (real value add up 0.2% in 23Q3) and a more competitive currency (undervalued by 4.2% on average) is … Read more

Inflation prospects and risks

4 January 202522 August 2022 by Pieter Laubscher

A comprehensive inflation shock Economic history is often replete with examples of present-day events. The inflation shock that hit the world in waves from early 2021 is clearly one of those events for which we seek an historic precedent. The global increase in inflation has been breath taking. Even the June 2022 month-on-month inflation readings … Read more