Navigate the business cycle with confidence
SA ECONOMY REMAINS ON THE RECOVERY ROAD, 21Q4 The SA economy remained on the recovery road in the fourth quarter of 2021, with real GDP expanding by 1.2% (quarter-on-quarter). In year-on-year terms, real GDP was up 1.8%. However, compared to pre-covid levels (19Q4), real GDP is down 1.5%. The 21Q1 level of GDP is comparable … Read more
REAL ECONOMY CONTRACTS, 21Q3 Real GDP contracted by 1.5% during 21Q3 compared to the second quarter. A contraction was expected in view of the confidence-shattering events in KZN and – to a lesser extent – Gauteng in July. However, the contraction was larger than expected. It appears manufacturing and retail, wholesale & accommodation activity were … Read more
Inflation has spiked in the US economy (and elsewhere) in recent months. The spike follows on the unprecedented economic shock in 2020 tied to the COVID-19 pandemic, when the global economy ground to a halt for almost six weeks, including intermittent lock down measures since. This disturbance of normal market forces and production value chains … Read more
ECONOMIC RECOVERY MOMENTUM REMAINS A TRICLE, 21Q2 Real GDP grew by 1.2% during the second quarter of 2021 when compared to the first quarter and was up 19.4% compared to the depth of the COVID-19 induced plunge a year ago. The rebound of economic activity was particularly strong during the third quarter of last year … Read more
ECONOMIC RECOVERY MOMENTUM SLOWS 21Q1, BUT CUMULATIVE REBOUND IS STRONG Real GDP continued to recover during 21Q1 from the COVID-19 induced plunge (16.6%) during the second quarter of last year. Even revised somewhat lower, the recovery came in stronger than expected during the second half of last year (13.7% and 1.4% respectively during the third … Read more
THE ECONOMIC RECOVERY MOMENTUM SLOWS SHARPLY, 20Q4 Real GDP continued to recover in the fourth quarter of 2020 (1.5%, quarter-on-quarter) following the precipitous fall in the second quarter (16.6%) and the rebound in the third quarter (13.7%). Cumulatively, the rebound of economic activity during the second half of 2020 was slightly stronger than anticipated, helped … Read more
ECONOMY REBOUNDS SHARPLY, 20Q3 The economy experienced a welcome rebound during the third quarter. Following the precipitous fall in the second quarter, when the economy contracted by 16.6% quarter-on-quarter, real GDP recovered by 13.5%. In year-on-year terms, real GDP was still 6.1% down in the third quarter. An analysis shows that a large improvement in … Read more
UNPRECEDENTED PLUNGE IN ECONOMIC ACTIVITY, 20Q2 As expected, the sudden-stop in real economic activity during the second quarter of 2020 was comprehensive and actually slightly worse compared to already gloomy market expectations. Real domestic spending contracted by 13.4% compared to the first quarter. Real exports shrunk by no less than 27.9%, which was significantly worse … Read more
ECONOMY CONTINUES TO CONTRACT, 20Q1 – BEFORE COVID-19 IMPACT Real GDP contracted by 2.0% (annualised) during the first quarter of 2020. The overall contraction was slightly less compared to market expectations. Unfortunately, the only reason for the ‘better-than-expected’ outcome was that real domestic spending contracted substantially more than expected, dragging imports down and boosting overall … Read more
SA ECONOMY IN CLASSIC RECESSION BEFORE COVID-19 HITS Real GDP growth decelerated to a trickle of 0.2% in 2019, from 0.8% the year before. The level of real GDP contracted in both quarters during the second half of the year, taking it to 0.6% percentage points below the level a year earlier. Excluding the impact … Read more