global

In its July Update of the World Economic Outlook, the IMF concludes “The projected pick-up in global growth … has not yet firmly materialised”.  The US economic recovery has been hit by the combination of a stronger dollar and the sharply lower oil price (albeit that both these factors have tended to reverse of late); … Read more

Uneven regional growth continues to characterise the global economic landscape.  The growth momentum is also not great. While there is closer convergence across the Atlantic, with Euro area growth steadily approaching that of the USA, where growth has been cooling down somewhat, the divergence between the advanced and developing economies has widened.  Short-term forecasts in … Read more

The April/May economic indicators point to a slowing world economic growth momentum going into the second quarter.  JP Morgan’s composite manufacturing PMI can in at a 21-month low in April.  Slower US growth is compounded by slowing growth in emerging economies; China’s industrial sector is contracting and the Brazilian and Russian economies are mired in … Read more

The world economic picture remains mixed and uncertain.  All regions are not only not firing on all cylinders, those that do are less than robust. Whereas the USA economy developed good momentum during the middle quarters of last year, some of that momentum was lost towards the end of the year and going into 2015.  … Read more

The precipitous decline in the dollar oil price to levels below $50/b is having a major impact on the global economic outlook.  Leading forecasters (e.g. JP Morgan) suggests global growth can be boosted by 0.5% points over the year ahead.  The US dollar rally has also been stronger than expected. Whereas the growth momentum in … Read more